The Republicans came out of the last mid-term election in control of the House of Representatives, but not the Senate. The Big Red Wave broke far from shore. Their control of the House was a mere four seats. Then, they argued for weeks over who should be Speaker and, after a few months, removed him. A renegade group voted with Democrats and removed their own Speaker. Then, he pouted and resigned…

How much does one need to know to predict what the Fed has to do? Fed-watching and guessing when, if, how much, and how many rate cuts are coming are pervasive in various media and personal discussions with meticulous analysis of CPI, PPI. PDQ and the phases of the moon.  One thing one needs to know: US Government expenditures are up to a $6 billion per day deficit and rising.  A question is…

Suddenly the game changed over the weekend.  Or did it? The Biden Administration vowed strong support for Israel on October 7. Then, it started backing off, making ridiculous demands that Israel cease fire. Only Israel, not Hamas. Then, Iran launched a major attack on Israel with drones and missiles.  Israel defeated this attack with strong help from the US military, as well as help from the UK…

The price of oil is meandering upward. A casual review of forecasts by financial organizations shows a general expectation that it will reach $90 a barrel by the end of the year. A review of the news suggests a certain stability in, and among, oil-producing countries and their customers. But, a closer look reveals a precarious oil market increasingly imperiled by Biden Administration policies:…

In the news this morning: Oil price up; inflation up; 10-year Treasury's yield up; Bitcoin down on an upward trend; Haiti in chaos and Americans there stuck and cannot get out; Biden’s budget trends will add trillions to the government debt in the next decade; Biden blames inflation on big business; another Boeing emergency landing (at LAX-cause not yet clear); polls show an increase of…

The president of the National Education Association (NEA), an American teachers’ union and the largest union in the country, is demanding the Biden Administration force Israel to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. The NEA is also demanding Hamas agree to a ceasefire that Hamas has clearly and repeatedly rejected. A one-way ceasefire is a surrender. Israel cannot agree to that.  The NEA previously…

Fifty years ago this week, in the middle of the Arab Oil Embargo, I was in Washington trying to convince Congressional representatives, policy makers, and bureaucrats there was no crisis.  As some of you know, at the time I was on the petroleum-engineering faculty of the Colorado School of Mines. My department chairman decided we had a responsibility to tell the government there was no crisis.…

A few nights ago at dinner with friends, a lady asked: “What is the oil business doing?” It is not easy to summarize quickly what a major worldwide industry is doing, but after pondering a moment, I answered: “Waiting.” Reflecting on the news since then gives me the impression everybody is waiting. The whole world seems not quite decided on something, uncommitted, waiting for something. The…

The Israel-Gaza War is having strong effects we did not expect and - so far - not having effects we expected. One of the first results was exposure of the wreckage of the American education system for all to see. Suddenly the success of a 50-year campaign to convert the U.S. school system, top to bottom, into a political weapon cannot be ignored. Concomitant with that are the results of mass…

A wide range of observers who study economic, political, financial, and cultural cycles of the U.S. and the world reached a common conclusion: The various cycles have all converged to a low point during this decade and this convergence will cause maximum disruption. The news over the past few months seems consistent with this conclusion and continues unabated.  It may be debated whether the…