September’s 4.1% unemployment rate and 6.8 million count of unemployed were little changed from August, but still higher than a year ago, while employment growth was surprisingly high, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
“Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in September. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million,” the new release reports.
In September, the 1.6 million long-term unemployed (27+ weeks) accounted for 23.7 percent of all unemployed people, up from 21.3 percent in August (1.5 million).
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 million (versus 4.8 million) in September. This measure is up from 4.1 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, rose from 367,000 in August to 445,000 in September.
The labor force participation rate was 62.7 percent for the third consecutive month in September.
Analysts were surprised by unexpectedly high 254,000 job growth in September, which as well above July (+144,000) and August (+159,000) and the average monthly gain of 203,000 over the prior 12 months.
Food service, health care and government contributed the most jobs to September’s increase:
- Employment in food services and drinking places +69,000, higher than the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months.
- Health care: +45,000, below the average monthly gain of 57,000 over the past 12 months.
- Government +31,000, below the average monthly gain of 45,000 jobs over the prior 12 months.
- Social assistance: +27,000, down from the 21,000 average increase of the prior 12 months.
- Construction employment: +25,000, up from the monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+19,000).
- Nonresidential specialty trade contractors: +17,000.
- Home health care services +13,000.
- Hospitals +12,000.
- Nursing and residential care facilities +9,000.
Upward revisions to July and August job growth bucked the long-term trend of BLS monthly reports revising its previously-reported job growth totals lower.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.
The constant downward revisions of its previous claims have eroded trust in BLS’s job numbers and the surprisingly high September count, combined with the atypical upward revisions of previous months just weeks before the 2024 elections, have increased skepticism even more, as Job Creators Network Alfredo Ortiz explained in a statement Friday:
"The Harris administration got the jobs report it was asking for on the eve of the election after the Federal Reserve broke with longstanding tradition and cut interest rates by 50 basis points. But can Americans trust the numbers?
“The BLS has downwardly revised its job numbers so often that onlookers should take this report from the Harris administration with a heavy dose of salt.”
Hold off on drawings conclusions about the labor market, analyst and RedBalloon job site CEO Andrew Crapuchettes advises:
“The Presidential election is a watershed moment for the economy. Employers are waiting on this key indicator prior to solidifying their hiring plans moving forward. The labor market is in a state of suspended animation until after November 5.
“Employers are telling us that they are in a holding pattern until they know what kinds of policies are going to be put into place.”