Report: More than Half of Children in U.S. Expected to Be Minorities by 2020

Monica Sanchez | March 3, 2015

According to a new U.S. Census Bureau report released Tuesday, more than half (50.2%) of the nation’s children are expected to be a part of a minority race or ethnic group by 2020.

Entitled “Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060,” the report examines the total U.S. population, native and foreign born.

Other major findings include the following:

  • The total U.S. population is projected to increase by 98.1 million between 2014 and 2060, from an estimated 319 million to 417 million respectively.
  • By 2030, all baby boomers will have reached age 65 or older. 
  • The percent of foreign born is expected to increase each decade, its rate of growth projected to outpace that of natives.
  • By 2044, the U.S. population as a whole is expected to become majority-minority.
  • The native population is expected to increase by 62 million (or 22 percent) between 2014 and 2060, whereas the foreign-born population is expected to increase by 36 million (or 85 percent), reaching approximately 78 million. 
  • By 2060, the nation’s foreign-born will reach nearly one in five of the total population, from 13 percent in 2014 to 19 percent.
  • Also by the year 2060, an estimated 36 percent of children (people under age 18) will be "single-race non-Hispanic White," compared with 52 percent today.

The agency emphasized twice in the report that their data does not include "factors that might influence the levels of population components, policy decisions for example," such as President Obama's executive action on immigration. 

"Factors that might influence the levels of population components, policy decisions for example, cannot be predicted with any degree of certainty," reports the U.S. Census Bureau. "Therefore, no attempts are made to incorporate these into the assumptions that produce the projections."

"Thus, if actual trends or levels in fertility, mortality, or international migration differ radically from the assumed trends and levels, the population projections will be less accurate."

That being said, the Census' projection of merely 78 million immigrant residents by 2060 could be grossly inaccurate. 

By 2020, 50.2 percent of children will be minorities. By 2044, 50.3 percent of all Americans will be minorities.