After World War II, the U.S. established a new “rules-based liberal international order” dominated by new “liberal democracies.” That system with its democracies is crumbling – right on schedule. As I have written previously, democracies vote for their own destruction; they typically last less than a century. The post-WWII democracies are now 75 to 80 years old, and they are at the end of their shelf life.
Over the past six weeks, a series of speeches by and meetings with President Trump and his Cabinet members presented the Trump Administration’s view of the world and its expected policies.
These speeches and meetings were obviously well planned and coordinated. They made the basis of U.S. foreign policy considerations clear. Europe is irrelevant and the Ukraine War is a sideshow for U.S. foreign policy concerns. The U.S. has bigger fish to fry. It is also obvious Donald Trump is firmly in charge of the U.S. Government. The Democratic Party confirmed that with its zombie performance at President Trump’s speech to Congress. Trump’s public support is growing.
Ukraine was presented with a deal for American companies to mine rare earths and other minerals in Ukraine after a ceasefire agreement. President Macron of France was quick to grasp the implications of all this and called a meeting of European leaders to decide what to do.
Typically, it was a flop. The German Chancellor left early in a snit and went home to get voted out of office. Georgia Meloni of Italy arrived at the end of the day. European Commissioner Ursula van der Leyen showed up but has no military and no authority to do anything about foreign policy for Europe.
President Zelensky had a difficult time accepting the beneficial implications of the mining offer. After three meetings, including the televised blow-up in the White House, it is still not signed. He sent a letter to Trump in which he noted he is now ready to sign. Trump has not accepted the offer yet, but he did read the letter to Congress during his speech.
Something happened to Europe after the end of the Cold War. Instead of blossoming with a new dawn of freedom and creativity, it turned itself into the largest senior-living welfare facility on the planet. It expanded NATO to include many of the newly-freed eastern European countries, but trimmed military budgets. It created the European Union to suffocate its economies in regulations. It created a new currency, the Euro, which has not established financial uniformity or strength among its users.
Europe sank into impotence – literally and figuratively. It cannot defend itself and does not make babies. It is gradually shrinking. Germany, once considered Europe’s industrial and economic leader, followed such illogical energy policies it is now de-industrializing. The British saw the light and left the EU. The U.K.gave itself a great opportunity to follow the example of one of its former colonies in Asia, Hong Kong, and become a financial and economic powerhouse. But, the disease of socialism was too advanced to reverse.
The U.S. has four primary adversaries: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, spanning the globe. The Ukraine war with Russia is not of central importance to the US. It is an irritant, however, and, like a stone in a boot, it needs to be removed so the U.S. can go on to its main consideration: China.
Ukraine was cobbled together by the Soviet Union for ease of administration with a large Russian-speaking population in eastern provinces and Crimea. With independence and a bifurcated population, it has been an unstable, corrupt, nonstop aggravation to itself and its neighbors.
The best Zelensky can expect is a ceasefire along the line of occupation between Russian and Ukrainian forces. He will not get a NATO membership, nor U.S. military forces on the ground as a security guarantee. The U.S. mining deal will give him funds for reconstruction and an American commercial presence with civilian U.S. boots on the ground. That is not the security guarantee he wants, but it is a deterrent and as good as he will get. He tried to get European help and found out they will talk but do nothing.
Trump approached Putin for discussions regarding an end to the war. Putin and Trump talked by telephone and their representatives came to the Saudi Arabia meeting. Obviously, by meeting in Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Sunni Arab world, the agenda likely included reorganizing the Middle East. With the three largest oil producers in one room, oil markets and sanctions were probably discussed.
The Wall Street Journal quoted Abbas Gallyamov (February 20 Print Edition) as saying such things as Russia’s ties with Iran and China are secondary to Putin, compared to Ukraine, while the opposite is true for the U.S. – and therein is the basis for cooperation between the U.S. and Russia. Although Putin seemed open to discussing an end to the war, he resumed attacking Ukraine with heavy artillery bombardments. Trump interpreted this as a repudiation of his efforts to reach a ceasefire and announced his intentions to impose strict sanctions on Russian oil exports.
The U.S. will not abandon Europe. Europe is our civilizational and cultural heritage and is a charming museum. The U.S. will support Europe, but expects Europe to lead its own defense. Senior-living facilities and museums are not included in world policy decisions.
The U.K.and some European countries are finally responding to U.S. actions and Putin’s threats by announcing steps toward rearmament. Germany’s new Chancellor announced a significant increase in defense budgets, although his budget will break EU debt restrictions. If various European countries rearm, they will each make an individual decision on debt financing and the balance between defense and welfare spending. As these decisions are enacted, each country will diverge from EU rules in an individual way. Each will eventually re-think its membership in the EU and the need for its own currency.
Ironically, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine may reinvigorate Europe; a result opposite to his intentions. NATO will be strengthened. Two new members, Sweden and Finland, have already joined. The EU and the Euro may be abandoned as countries seek their own way to rearm.
A new world order is developing. The United States expects to design it and lead it. If reinvigorated European countries wants to join, they will be welcome. If not, they will be left behind as the world moves into the future.